July 2013 – Looking Forward

July 31, 2013

Changing GDP To Reflect The Digital Economy?

Previously on this blog and in my presentations over the last couple of years, I’ve pointed out that we are not adequately measuring what’s happening in the economy because GDP was developed during the 1930s to measure the industrial economy. In significant ways, it underestimates the value of digital products and services.

I even referred back to a great old quote from Senator Robert Kennedy – http://njacknis.tumblr.com/post/16816367505/robert-kennedy-on-measuring-the-economy-too-much

So it was with interest that I read earlier this week (“Getting Creative With the G.D.P.”) that the Federal government will be adjusting GDP this fall to better account for the new economy. In March, the Government issued a report about this topic, entitled “Preview of the 2013 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: Changes in Definitions and Presentations”.

The BEA report says:

Currently, expenditures for private R&D are not recorded as final expenditures in the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP). Expenditures for purchased R&D are classified as intermediate inputs, and the costs of producing own-account R&D (that is, production of R&D by an enterprise for its own use) are simply included with the other costs of production and are not identified as contributing to the output of a separate commodity.

Investment in R&D will be presented along with investment in software and in entertainment, literary, and artistic originals in a new asset category entitled “intellectual property products,” … The recognition of R&D as investment will improve BEA’s measures of fixed investment, allow users to better measure the effects of innovation and intangible assets on the economy, and make the NIPAs more consistent with recommendations in the SNA [the government’s “system of national accounts”].

The strategic consultants, McKinsey, in commenting on this change this week, noted:

In our knowledge-based economy, this is a sensible move that brings GDP accounting closer to economic reality. And while that may seem like an arcane shift relevant only to a small number of economists, the need for the change reflects a broader mismatch between our digital economy and the way we account for it.

The change doesn’t fully address the under-measurement of the impact of the digital economy, but it does start to fix the problem. Now, as both the public and private sector make investments in expanding the digital sector of the economy, the return on those investments will become clearer.

[http://njacknis.tumblr.com/post/56970517124/changing-gdp-to-reflect-the-digital-economy]

July 24, 2013

Is County Innovation An Oxymoron?

Last Friday, the National Association of Counties held an Innovation Summit as part of their annual meeting in Ft. Worth. I was asked to give the keynote speech on what local government leaders can do to encourage innovation in their counties, but I also attended the other discussions.

As I listened, in the back of my mind were recent articles about the increasingly important role local government can play – in the face of a dysfunctional Federal government and the global connectivity that enables local governments to work together and provide better services.

So the first question is whether these county governments can step up to the challenge, or as the title of this post puts it: Is County Innovation An Oxymoron?

While certainly not all of them are innovating, it is striking how many are. Because so little is reported about local government innovation and there is not an active peer network among these innovators once they leave their annual meeting, the counties often don’t know what each has done. That, of course, limits the spread of these innovations.

But that will change. The counties are about to create a peer-to-peer online community, thanks to Bert Jarreau, NACo’s Chief Innovation Officer.

Moreover, the cost of computer technology and networks is going down and becoming more widespread, which is great for counties with smaller budgets, who want to innovate, but have felt they didn’t have the money and staff skills to do so.

With “cloud computing”, where all kinds of software, hardware resources and data is available on the Internet, these counties don’t need to buy their own expensive equipment or hire large numbers if IT experts. Instead, they can pay for what they use.

With many of their employees already owning smart phones and tablets, these counties can get access to mobile apps. Since people have already figured out how to use apps on these devices, training is simple. And software in the app market often costs dramatically less than traditional software.

With videoconferencing, social media and other collaboration tools, it is also possible for these county innovators to support and help each other at any time.

These three big trends – widespread technology, cloud computing and mobile devices – may seem familiar to those in the IT industry. But the reality is that this combination is relatively recent and still maturing.

All in all, however, this adds up to an unprecedented potential for innovation in local government. It just needs the right platform and the people who will act as a catalyst for that potential to be realized.

[http://njacknis.tumblr.com/post/56332602351/is-county-innovation-an-oxymoron]

July 17, 2013

The Lever To Accelerate Education Reform?

Although there has been lots of news this year about online education – such as massively open online courses (MOOCs) – as a proportion of overall spending on education these efforts are still quite small. What will accelerate reforms like these and other, perhaps even better, changes to the ways that people can learn?

It has struck me that before this acceleration of innovation can occur, we must cut the Gordian Knot of education – the fact that, in general, the same institutions that offer education are also the ones who certify that a student has mastered the material.

If we could break that combination, people will be free to learn in the ways that are best for each of them individually. Instead of one size fits all, each person could use one or more of these approaches: MOOCs, classroom, peer-to-peer, self-teaching, online video, hands-on or other ways that may be invented. Then an authoritative independent organization can certify whether or not the person has mastered the material.

So it was interesting to read in the New York Times, a few weeks ago, that:

“Working with Mozilla, the MacArthur Foundation and a consortium interested in virtual learning, former President Bill Clinton announced a project on Thursday to expand the use of Open Badges — online credentials that employers or universities can use in hiring, admissions, promotions or awarding credit. The badges serve as credentials that can help self-taught computer programmers, veterans returning to civilian life and others show skills they learned outside a classroom. ”

It remains to be seen how widely this particular initiative will go, but this or something like it – sooner or later – will provide that independent credentialing system that is needed for disruptive innovation in education to start happening.

[http://njacknis.tumblr.com/post/55690941334/the-lever-to-accelerate-education-reform]

July 10, 2013April 18, 2018

Getting A Grip On The Future Economy

I’ve been asked by several people for the link to the video of my keynote presentation at the first Intelligent Communities Institute symposium last fall, on “Seizing Our Destiny: Getting A Grip On The Future Economy”. This was the latest version of the future-oriented strategy to succeed in the world as technology and how people will make a living both change – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlNxLmIQ4O8.

[http://njacknis.tumblr.com/post/55085525840/getting-a-grip-on-the-future-economy-ive-been]

(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)

July 3, 2013

Big Brother or Fun Uncle?

The recent news about NSA collection of data and Google’s ever expanding collection of personal information have increased concerns about privacy. So some people are worried the use of sensors all over – the Internet of Things or Everything – will lead to Big Brother.

A few of my recent blog posts show creative uses of the Internet everywhere.

I think of this as more like your Fun Uncle than Big Brother 🙂

Happy Fourth of July!

[http://njacknis.tumblr.com/]